Why Bet on Total Goals Instead of Match Outcomes?
Many bettors initially try to predict match winners, but this can be unpredictable due to various factors such as injuries, tactical changes, or unexpected performances. Instead, betting on total goals exploits a more stable trend—teams' tendencies to score and concede goals.
One key observation behind this method is that mistakes in football lead to goals. As fatigue sets in, defenders are more prone to errors, particularly in the final 20 minutes. These moments often result in goals, making total goal betting a viable strategy.
The Key Principles of the Total Goals Strategy
This system focuses on betting over 1.5 total goals in a match. The fundamental rules of the strategy include:
Selecting High-Scoring Leagues: Some leagues naturally produce more goals than others. Competitions in the Netherlands, Austria, Japan, and Scandinavian countries often feature attacking football with high-scoring matches.
Avoiding Certain Matches: Derbies and high-stakes games are generally avoided since teams tend to play more cautiously in such encounters.
Using Statistical Analysis: The strategy emphasizes picking matches where both teams consistently score more than two goals per game in their previous fixtures.
Waiting for Better Odds: If a bookmaker offers low odds before kickoff, waiting 10-15 minutes into the match often results in improved odds, making the bet more valuable.
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Effectiveness and Risk Management
The method suggests an 80% success rate when properly applied. However, even with such a high success rate, managing risk is crucial. The approach recommends:
Flat Betting: No more than 5% of the betting bankroll should be placed on a single bet.
Strict Selection Criteria: Avoiding low-odds bets (below 1.2) and excessively risky ones (above 1.35) ensures a balance between safety and profitability.
Final Thoughts
Sports betting algorithms and strategies evolve based on trends and market inefficiencies. While no betting system is foolproof, focusing on goal-based bets rather than match outcomes can offer more consistency. By leveraging data analysis, league selection, and patience in betting, this approach provides a structured way to approach football betting with a higher chance of long-term success.
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